According to Nate Silver, an American statistician who specialized in the electoral system, “Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately.” Lucky for us, it won’t be the case this year, as the race between Republicans and Democrats is tight.
« Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately »
Approximately ten days before the Midterm elections, Democrats covet the House of Representatives and the Senate. Indeed, Republicans currently hold control of both Congress chambers.
In order to gain back the majority, the Democrats need to hold on to the seats they already occupy while flipping 24 seats in the House and two in the Senate.
WHAT’S UP WITH THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES?
Members serve a two-year term, meaning this year, every seat is on the ballot.
Republicans currently own 236 seats out of 435. On the other hand, 193 seats are blue, while 6 are vacant.
In that way, Democrats wanting to gain back authority on the House must gain at least 24 seats. The party is optimistic, since forty Republican members are not running again. However, flipping the House is rare, and has only occurred three times in 25 years. Voters have favored the party which was not in the White House only thrice in a quarter of a century.
WHAT ABOUT THE SENATE?
Democrats need to gain control over 50 seats in order to take back the legislative power over this chamber. An insubstantial majority of Republicans currently occupy these seats.
Indeed, there are 2 senators for each American state, for a total of 100. Each member serves a 6 year-term, and a third of these seats is up for grabs every two years. Thirty-five seats will be in play on the sixth of November, amongst which 26 held by Democrats or left-leaning independents. Ten of the senators are running in states held by Republicans.
In that political context, Democrats are hoping to capture four Republican-held seats: Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, and Texas. According to a New-York Times poll result, Democrats will gain 45 votes out of a hundred, as 9% of Texas voters are undecided.
WHAT PARTY IS LIKELY TO WIN THE MOST SEATS ?
Traditionally, more Republicans show up to vote than Democrats, giving Donald Trump’s voters a great advantage. Furthermore, the Republican protectionism policy and solid economy have raised a lot of support for the party in the White House.
However, opposition to the American president is likely to motivate a lot of Democrat voters, who are galvanized by their discontentment, and urge to take back the legislative power into their hands.
No matter the result, it will directly be linked to the people’s approval or criticism of the incumbent American president, Donald Trump.
One fact is for certain, the country is increasingly divided.
So, will the blue wave be powerful enough?